Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will in the end lose but each side has got something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
