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China has sent its coast guard through the waters of the Senkaku islands and unmanned aerial vehicles past remote Japanese territory as China escalates strains following the Japan's leader's remarks regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the China's maritime patrol stated that its ships conducted a “lawful patrol operation” through the waters of the Diaoyu islands, which are administered by Tokyo but also claimed by China.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 conducted patrols within the territorial waters of the Senkaku islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity undertaken by the China coast guard to uphold its rights and interests,” the statement said.

Diplomatic Spat

Beijing and Tokyo have repeatedly faced off around the disputed territory but the recent developments come amid an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if China attack the self-governing island of Taiwan it might provoke a armed reaction from Tokyo.

That sparked an angry response from China, which has signalled it expects a withdrawal from the Japanese official.

Island's Stance

Beijing asserts Taiwan as its sovereign land and plans to incorporate it under what it describes as “unification”. It has not ruled out the use of force. Taiwan’s government and citizens overwhelmingly reject the idea of Beijing's control – choosing to preserve the status quo without formally announcing independence, but vowing to defend themselves if necessary.

An military assault by Beijing would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, potentially involving the US and other partner nations including Tokyo, which has land just 110km (68 miles) from the island.

Defense Operations

On the island, the defence ministry reported this weekend that it had detected 30 Chinese military aircraft, seven navy ships and one government vessel, which was probably the coast guard, operating around the island over the previous day.

Official charts released showed up to three drones flying between the island and the Japanese islands off its northeastern shoreline, appearing to go unusually near to the nearby Japanese island. PLA movements there are occasional, but uncommon, and Beijing's defense operations in the island's ADIZ generally has been minimal in recent weeks.

Earlier this weekend, the ministry said China had been carrying out another “combined military exercise” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It added the island had dispatched military assets to monitor the situation. The island reports such Chinese patrols a couple of times a month as part of what Taipei says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Diplomatic Pressure

Japan has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since the Japanese official made her comments, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in the Japanese city prompting a formal protest from Japan by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry declared that any Tokyo's involvement would be certain to collapse.

Warning for Citizens

On Friday, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “suitable actions”, though it did not elaborate.

Multiple carriers from China announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be cancelled without penalty.

Adding to the tensions, China’s government on the weekend urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it described as an volatile safety situation.

Although not an outright prohibition, a dramatic reduction in the number of Chinese students could have a negative impact on academic institutions in Japan. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were studying in Japan last year, according to official data. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the single biggest group.

Media Response

Earlier this weekend, a official press commentary accused Takaichi of staging a political stunt that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a small-scale encounter; it would probably involve other powers, including the US, and could quickly spiral into a major confrontation with severe repercussions.”

Strategic Positions

The administration in Taipei says only its people can decide its future. Japanese leaders have traditionally refrained from publicly mentioning Taiwan when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also preferred by Japan's primary defense partner, the US.

Nevertheless, Beijing's governing party says the unification of Taiwan with the mainland China is “unavoidable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, China has also been increasing its political operations and its rhetoric towards Taiwan.