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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple formula. It often acts as a type of apology. We regret we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who oversaw the largest improvement is handed the award. In reality, it sparks an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're actually honoring superior coaching or just the biggest upset.

However the current race is fundamentally unique. The pool of candidates is unusually deep. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with reigning division winners declining and recent underperformers rising in unison. Under an normal season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a chaotic and fun year, he's competing with several other elite candidates.

Here is how the ideal ballot could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper system, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his rare talent. From Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide-open targets consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to conjure big plays from nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost each gamble – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the building with the immense hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a normal season, he would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this is not a typical season!

The area where his candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. However Johnson comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has engineered a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has nailed the leadership stuff, which was not a given following his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen trusted newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. But Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

Following an initial hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the team wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

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